Small Margins, Rising Turnout: The Race for B.C.’s Young Voters

The numbers suggest real potential. Another five-point increase in turnout among B.C.’s 769,437 registered voters under 35 would add roughly 38,000 votes, in a province where several ridings were decided by a few hundred votes or fewer in 2024.¹ ² Young voters hold a wide range of views, and that diversity is a strength. Participation is what gives it weight. 

With polling suggesting a tight race for the 47 seats needed to form a majority and several battleground ridings in play, getting B.C.’s youth vote matters more than ever. ⁹ 

A close race, decided in a handful of seats  

We saw the 2024 election producing the narrowest possible majority: 47 of 93 seats for the BC NDP. By our count from Elections BC’s official results, 13 ridings were decided by fewer than 500 votes, and four by fewer than 100: Surrey-Guildford (22), Kelowna Centre (40), Courtenay-Comox (93), and Maple Ridge East (97). ¹ 

Many of those close seats are also low-turnout seats. Eight of the 13 closest races had turnout below the provincial average of 58.45%. In Surrey-Guildford, about 18,500 registered voters stayed home in a race decided by 22 votes. ¹ For any party, the fastest route to a seat may not be persuading already committed voters. It may be bringing out voters who usually stay home, and younger voters are the largest group with room to grow. ² 

It’s no coincidence that both the BC NDP and the BC Conservatives have focused their local announcements on Surrey, the Tri-Cities, Courtenay-Comox, and Kelowna, communities which were home to several of the closest races in 2024.¹  

Where young voters could matter most 

We think they matter throughout the province, but Surrey is considered a critical battleground in this election, and both party leaders have focused on campaigning there. ¹¹ It’s easy to see why. The city holds 10 of B.C.’s 93 ridings, and four of them were among the 13 closest races in 2024: Surrey-Guildford (22 votes), Surrey City Centre (232), Surrey-Panorama (263), and Surrey-Serpentine River (435).¹ ¹¹ 

Surrey’s median age was 38.4 at the 2021 Census; B.C.’s median age is 41.8 as of July 2026.⁷ ¹⁰ The 2021 Census also counted about 35,000 Surrey residents aged 15 to 19, an age group that is now in its twenties.⁷ 

What young voters want 

This election, the conversation looks different. More candidates in their 20s and 30s are running in ridings across the province, most visibly BC Green Leader Emily Lowan, who is 26. 

The cost of living, housing affordability, and childcare are among the major issues in this campaign.⁸ In our view, that reflects a generation of voters and candidates who have made these issues impossible to overlook, and election day is an opportunity to carry that momentum forward.  

The pressures behind these issues are real. Generation Squeeze estimates that younger British Columbians now need about 18 years of work to save a down payment on an average home in B.C. For people entering the market in the 1970s, it took about five. ⁴ Students add their own concerns: tuition, transit reliability, and cuts on campus.⁵ Climate and access to health care are also high on the list.⁶ 

Young voters aren’t a single bloc. In 2017, a surge in youth turnout helped elect the BC NDP. By 2024, pollsters were noting a shift among some younger voters toward right-leaning parties, driven largely by affordability. ⁶ That unpredictability is exactly why they are worth competing for.  

Some campaign commitments may read as aimed squarely at younger voters, but affordability doesn’t stop at a demographic line. Commitments on housing, childcare, and transit speak to anyone feeling the squeeze, and in a race this close, no party can afford to write off any group of voters.  

Get out and vote! 

For anyone voting for the first time, or voting somewhere new, the process is more flexible than many expect. You can register at the voting place with ID, and during advance voting you can cast your ballot at any voting place in the province. Locations and hours are available at elections.bc.ca. 

At Global Public Affairs, our work centers on understanding how public decisions are made. Time and again, the answer comes back to participation: in consultations, in conversations with decision makers, and at the ballot box. 

Advance voting runs October 16-21. General voting day is October 24. However you choose to vote, we encourage every eligible British Columbian, and especially younger voters, to make their voice part of the result. 

Sources 

1. Elections BC, Statement of Votes: 43rd Provincial General Election, October 19, 2024 (April 17, 2025). https://elections.bc.ca/docs/rpt/statement-of-votes-2024-provincial-election.pdf 
2. Elections BC, Report of the Chief Electoral Officer, 43rd Provincial General Election, October 19, 2024, Volume 1 – Administration (May 27, 2025). https://www.elections.bc.ca/docs/rpt/Report_of_the_CEO_PGE2024.pdf 
3. Elections BC, Voter Participation by Age Group: 2020 Provincial General Election. https://elections.bc.ca/docs/stats/voter-participation-by-age-group-2013-2020.pdf
4. Generation Squeeze, “This election, ask parties to put younger generations back in the budget” (October 6, 2026). https://www.gensqueeze.ca/this_election_ask_parties_to_put_younger_generations_back_in_the_budget
5. BC Federation of Students, “Your Vote Matters: 5 Reasons Why Young People Will Influence the Upcoming Elections” (September 29, 2026). https://www.wearebcstudents.ca/your_vote_matters
6. CBC News, “Affordability, climate, housing top of mind for young B.C. voters” (October 17, 2024). https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/young-bc-voters-2024-1.7354337 
7. Statistics Canada, Census Profile, 2021 Census of Population: Surrey, City (CY), British Columbia, Catalogue no. 98-316-X2021001. https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2021/dp-pd/prof/index.cfm?Lang=E 
8. Vancouver Sun, Lori Culbert, “B.C. Election 2026: 12 hot topics and where each party stands” (October 16, 2026). https://vancouversun.com/news/bc-election-2026-party-platforms-key-issues 
9. 338Canada, British Columbia provincewide projection, last updated October 16, 2026. https://338canada.com/bc/districts.htm 
10. Statistics Canada, The Daily, September 23, 2026 (population estimates as of July 1, 2026). https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260923/dq260923a-eng.htm 
11. The Canadian Press, “B.C. Conservatives back in battleground Surrey on election trail,” via Global News (October 8, 2026). https://globalnews.ca/news/12092479/b-c-conservatives-back-in-battleground-surrey-on-election-trail/