Surviving Anti-Incumbency Movements: How B.C. and Saskatchewan Governments Will Respond

By: Craig Loewen 

Premiers David Eby and Scott Moe survived provincial elections in the past month despite big “time for change” and anti-incumbent movements with the B.C. NDP and Saskatchewan Party (Sask Party) winning. Still, it won’t be business as usual for the returning premiers with reduced majorities and many new faces in cabinet, caucus and key staffing positions. Both Premiers are busy recalibrating their governments in response to the strong messages sent from their electorates on election day.

For organizations and individuals doing business in B.C. and Saskatchewan, it will be like working with new governments due to the dramatic personnel changes and likely policy and political direction change that each premier will take to address the results.

Responding to a Clear Message for Change

In B.C., the BC NDP won the slimmest of majority governments with 47 of 93 seats (down 8), the BC Conservatives surged to 44 seats (up 36), and the BC Greens held steady at two seats. In Saskatchewan, the Sask Party won 35 of 61 seats (down 12), and the Saskatchewan NDP increased their total to 26 (up 12).

Many were quick to applaud opposition parties in both provinces for almost toppling powerful incumbents. However, another view is that after several terms in office, the B.C. NDP and Sask Party victories are quite impressive, given the instability of the electorate and political landscape. An uneasy electorate and societal unrest created by a combination of the pandemic years, the housing crises, inflation and international geopolitical instability have left many voters angry and questioning political leadership.

The more polarized political debate and views, along with growing divides among voting groups, particularly between rural and urban voters, have created powerful anti-incumbency and time for a change movements across Canada and the United States. The US election result earlier this month is the most dramatic recent example.

Retirements and election defeats have led to substantial changes in the makeup of both governing caucuses—16 of the 34 Sask Party MLAs, and 18 of the 47 B.C. NDP MLAs are newly elected.

“It’s pretty clear to me that British Columbians sent us, sent me, a strong message that we need to do better and, in particular, on issues of affordability, the challenges that families are facing on issues of public safety in our communities, and my commitment to British Columbians is, I take those lessons very seriously.”

– B.C. Premier and NDP Leader David Eby

“In the recent election, many people voted to re-elect our government to ensure a strong economy and a bright future, while many others voted for change. Our new government will deliver both.”

– Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe

Cabinet Shake-Ups

The most immediate tool premiers have to demonstrate change are within their cabinet picks. New ministers were named out of necessity, with many previous cabinet ministers not running for re-election or being defeated, and in response to the time for a change message of the election.

Premier Eby appointed a new cabinet this week with 10 ministers who have not previously served in cabinet and several returning ministers taking on new roles in major portfolios, including health and finance. Premier Moe appointed a slightly smaller cabinet earlier in November, with four of the 16 ministers entering cabinet for the first time, and two former ministers re-entering cabinet. In Saskatchewan, Premier Moe took the change agenda a step further, assigning all returning ministers to new portfolios.

Strengthened Oppositions and Tight Legislative Votes

The bolstered opposition presence in both B.C. and Saskatchewan will play a critical role in legislative dynamics moving forward.

For the B.C. NDP, a resurgent B.C. Conservative Party led by John Rustad provides a formidable opposition and has the numbers to aggressively challenge the government. Particularly once a Speaker is identified, making the seat count equal between the NDP and Conservatives.  The Saskatchewan NDP, led by Carla Beck, gained significant ground, nearly sweeping urban centers, and are positioned to provide the biggest opposition challenge to the Sask Party government since it was first elected in 2007.

The increased number of opposition seats translates into more funding and resources for research and outreach, allowing them greater opportunity to scrutinize government policy and provide alternative solutions effectively.

The role of house leaders and whips will be very important in legislative sessions as every vote will matter with only a one-seat majority in B.C., and a four-seat majority in Saskatchewan. Routine incidences like sick days and personal absences will need to be accounted for quickly, to ensure votes in the chamber don’t catch either governing party off guard.

A Potential Return to the Ballot Box

B.C.’s narrow margin, in particular, means that even minor dissent within the NDP caucus or unforeseen alliances in the Legislature could result in a confidence vote loss, forcing either a coalition or another election.

In Saskatchewan, while Premier Moe’s majority is more secure, the potential for urban alienation with only 2/26 seats in Regina and Saskatoon, resignations or floor crossings could also prompt pressure from within the Sask Party for change in their leadership or even an earlier-than-expected election later in this four-year mandate.

Impacts on Government Relations and Advocacy

As these two provinces navigate their new political landscapes, organizations and individuals with government relations and advocacy needs in B.C. and Saskatchewan should be highly engaged. Growing existing relationships and establishing new ones with key decision-makers is more important than ever. While being political and not partisan, consideration should also be given to growing opposition relationships, as the current opposition parties could feasibly become the next governments.

When inviting cabinet ministers and MLAs to events, announcements or meetings, organizations should be aware that there will be very little travel outside of the capital cities when the legislatures are sitting, and meetings scheduled during session may be interrupted with ministers and MLAs leaving to vote in the chamber.

When political survival is prioritized, there is a tendency to bypass engagement and consultation with affected stakeholders, creating heightened risks of unintended policy consequences. This is particularly relevant in B.C., but in both provinces, adapting and swiftly responding to shifting political winds aiming to address change demands of the electorate will be key, and it’s up to organizations to ensure their needs and advocacy goals aren’t overlooked in critical policy discussions.