Beyond the Ballot: Perspectives on Canada – U.S.

The Intra-Provincial Dynamic in the Shadow of the Giant to the South
Provincial governments in Canada have long had an interesting relationship with our neighbours to the south. While U.S. political advocacy by provinces is not new, the profile and the stakes are far greater than in years past. Long-term advocacy approaches established by Alberta and Ontario have proven critical in 2025 as Canada navigates a turbulent and unpredictable second Trump presidency.

Today, we look at the advocacy efforts of two of the largest provincial trade relationships with the U.S. – Alberta and Ontario.

Some thoughts from Pierre Alvarez in Alberta:  Twenty years ago, then-Premier Ralph Klein travelled to Washington D.C. to open Alberta’s first U.S. office within the Canadian Embassy – a move that signalled Alberta’s intention to advocate directly for its interests at the highest levels in the U.S. federal government. Unlike other Alberta international offices at the time which primarily focused on trade and investment promotion, the Washington D.C. office was unique in that it focused mainly on policy advocacy for key sectors and was most often led by a former provincial Minister such as Murray Smith or Gary Mar who knew how to work the political halls of power.

Alberta’s efforts paved the way for other provinces to recognize the value of an official presence in Washington. While many would assume that energy was the major early focus of the Alberta Office, that was not the case. In fact, the George W. Bush administration was pleading for Canada to increase exports of natural gas and crude oil as projections (since proven to be wildly wrong) were concerned about dwindling U.S. energy supplies. The key issues Alberta’s team worked on actually revolved around cattle and softwood lumber exports amongst others.  There is no denying that Alberta and Canada by extension were seen as a friend “in need” (of note I was President of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers at the time) and that access to the administration was generally open, reception was warm and both sides were committed to finding solutions.

A view from Monique Smith in Ontario:  In 2011, the Ontario government under then-Premier Dalton McGuinty entered into an agreement with the federal government for its own office – literally next door to Alberta – in the Canadian Embassy in DC. In October 2013, as Ontario’s former Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs, I had the privilege of serving the province as its first Representative in Washington. At the time, Prime Minister Harper and the Alberta government were engaged in a focused campaign seeking approval for the Keystone pipeline. Ontario was more focused on climate change and infrastructure and engaged with both the U.S. federal government and with state governments on both of these issues.

With the election of Donald Trump in 2016, the priorities of the U.S. federal government shifted and there was growing support for Buy America (Buy American) legislation at both the federal and state levels. On this issue, Alberta and Ontario found common cause, and both provincial Representatives found ourselves working together to convince legislators in a range of states that these provisions, while not directed at Canada, often found us in U.S. crosshairs. Having a presence in Washington DC and focusing much of our time on building relationships there as well as in many state capitals proved invaluable in pushing back on these initiatives.

Some Shared Advice from Monique and Pierre:  Under different governments, different Premiers, Prime Ministers and Presidents, the range and scope of cross-border issues has only grown and become more complicated, requiring more strategic and timely responses.  Nonetheless, the important role of provinces in advocating and seeking to influence remains.

The second election of Donald Trump to the presidency has brought new and stronger-than-ever threats to Canada and Canadian businesses from coast to coast to coast.

In his first mandate, President Trump took a long time to transition and take full control of the levers of power. His cabinet was not fully sworn in until late April 2017, more than three months after he was first inaugurated. The dawn of Mr. Trump’s second term has been a much different experience with a swift confirmation of his cabinet (all done in approximately 60 days – except the Ambassador to the UN), an incredible flurry of Executive Orders flowing out of the Oval Office and a concerted effort to stir up chaos in the world economic and geopolitical order.

World leaders around the globe have been trying to discern their new relationship with America. Many have been developing strategies of appeasement or placation, or have simply tried to stay out of the President’s way. All have failed to date.

With “Liberation Day” now a week behind us, the world remains perplexed. While no one was able to discern what the President intended in the lead-up to last Wednesday, few would have predicted the chaos and market volatility that has ensued. And with the most recent Chinese counter-tariffs and US counter-(counter?) – tariffs, that volatility and chaos only continues and grows. Even as we publish this, things have changed again with the President pausing global reciprocal tariffs and raising tariffs on China.

Canada and Mexico seem to have an advantage at the moment in that the tariffs that have been imposed, while life-altering for major sectors, are not as widespread as those imposed on other countries. Furthermore, the renegotiation of CUSMA (USMCA, new NAFTA), which was expected and planned for next year, provides a structured opportunity for Canada to negotiate a new (free?) trade agreement with our neighbours and to hopefully address wide-spread volatility and the tariffs themselves. It should not be forgotten, however, that longstanding disputes such as softwood lumber and supply management in the dairy industry continue to persist despite the signing of CUSMA by President Trump in his first term.

In this second Trump era, Canada is no different than many other countries in Mr. Trump’s view.  Despite indications that initial conversations between the President and new PM Mark Carney were well-received, overall Canada’s efforts to forge a bond since Mr. Trump’s second inauguration have been met with something between derision and condescension. As we await the federal vote on April 28 and the transition to a next government – whatever stripe it may be – Canada’s Premiers have found themselves with more attention and access than likely ever before.

From that vantage point, two Premiers in particular have taken the spotlight. While Premiers Doug Ford and Danielle Smith have taken very different approaches to the threats from President Trump, they offer legitimate perspectives and representation of their provinces. It remains to be seen which, if either, will have lasting success and impact. And it may well be that prior to that question being answered, the next Prime Minister will solidify a new working relationship with our historical “closest friend, ally and trading partner.”

Without question, in the new world order being forged by the Trump administration, a cohesive and strategic approach – that brings together the voices of Canada’s  provinces and their longstanding trade relations in the U.S., alongside the federal government and the Prime Minister leading it, offers the best path forward to protect Canada’s interests as we face 1382 further days of Donald Trump as President of the United States.

Pierre Alvarez, Vice Chair of Global Public Affairs, is a proud Western Canadian who has previously served as President of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, Deputy Minister to the Premier of the Northwest Territories and a senior advisor to the federal Minister of Energy, Mines and Resources.  Hailing from North Bay, Hon. Monique Smith, Senior Counsel at Global, is a lawyer by background, a former Cabinet Minister in Ontario (including at Intergovernmental Affairs), led transition for a former Premier of Ontario and served as the province’s first Representative in Washington DC (2013-2018).