Youth Engagement

This in-depth look at Canada’s youth vote was jointly authored by several of the under-30 voters working at Global Public Affairs.

Of all the dynamics of the 2025 election that set it apart from previous elections—the influence of American politics, the last-minute change to the Liberal Party’s leadership, exceptional shifts in public opinion polling—one that has largely gone unnoticed has been movement in the electoral base for the two parties competing to form the next federal government.

In recent months, we have seen voters under 30 increasingly support the Conservative Party of Canada, as is illustrated below in MQO Research polling commissioned by Global Public Affairs.

The two percent difference between the Liberals and Conservatives represents a statistical tie considering margin of error. While the Liberals have more support from older Canadians, the Conservatives have built a strong base of support among youth. Almost a complete reversal from years prior.

Why is this the case?

It is important to remember a few commonalities across the 18-to-30-year-old demographic.

First, these voters were born between 1995 and 2007. The vast majority only became politically engaged after the 2015 federal election. For the oldest of this voting cohort, 2015 would have been their first federal election as voters, and based on the polling from that time, many voted for Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party. Perhaps just as consequential, given the issues at play in this current Canadian federal election campaign, is that their first memory of a U.S. Presidential election would have been the 2016 election of President Donald Trump’s first administration. Since both elections, we have seen drastic polarization of the global electorate, particularly through social media.

Social media is this cohort’s primary and often exclusive source of information. That said, as the digital realm becomes increasingly polarized and algorithms lead to complex ideological echo chambers, their ability to engage with alternative thoughts and options is limited.

Another generationally defining characteristic is this group’s experience with COVID-19. Aged between 13 and 24 when the pandemic first hit, this voting cohort was uniquely affected by it. They lost educational quality alongside key social and life milestones like graduations, proms, and moving out of their childhood homes. For many in this youth voting cohort, these opportunities feel stolen.

With the COVID-19 pandemic came the global economic downturn that followed. As many of this demographic were entering the labour market, they saw their purchasing power take a significant hit. For some this translated into difficulties entering the job market period, as businesses sought to scale down operations and reduce headcount.

These factors combined did not reflect the promises of middle-class prosperity and youth empowerment that initially attracted this group to the Liberals in 2015. As a result, this has led to significant frustration and increasingly high institutional distrust among youth voters.

The Poilievre effect

And this is where Pierre Poilievre comes into the picture.

Mr. Poilievre launched his 2025 campaign on a narrative of “broken promises,” a direct message that resonates with youth who feel ignored, left behind, and alienated from the status quo.  In using this approach, Poilievre confirmed the growing sentiment that Canada’s institutions are broken and that change is needed to give youth the future they want and feel they deserve.

The Conservative leader also focused squarely on affordability, one of the top issues among youth voters who are entering the workforce and an “adult world” unable to afford rent, groceries and gas, among other essentials. Despite some pivoting to manage the Canada-US relationship, the Conservative campaign continues to hammer on these issues and it continues to resonate.

What about Carney and Singh?

While Poilievre’s play to be the ‘change’ candidate resonates on issues and tone, Jagmeet Singh’s NDP campaign largely feels out of place. His hopeful messaging, not dissimilar from Liberal and NDP campaigns of the past, seems out of touch with the current electorate sentiment, and this is demonstrated in the party’s dwindling support.

Carney, however, is playing to this distrustful, frustrated electorate in his own way. Though not as pointed as the Poilievre campaign, Carney’s suited-up, bureaucratic persona is enough of a change for a group that has only known Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader.

While some of the youth electorate is looking for a party they can emotionally relate to and engage with, for others, frustration has them feeling exhausted. The 24/7 news cycle has them wanting to disengage. To this group, Mark Carney has the experience and personality that will allow them to disconnect. In their eyes, he can be trusted to mind the country while they check out.

As the Conservatives gain and the NDP lose support, a strategic “anything but Conservative” voter will see Carney’s Liberals as the only alternative.

Does it matter?

Historically, youth have not voted, and in our view, that pattern is not likely to change significantly in this election either.

To date, no party has targeted youth voters through direct advertising or a youth platform. This lack of direct focus, coupled with the short election timeframe, has meant awareness of the election among youth voters is limited.

As a cohort, we find ourselves in a negative feedback loop. Youth do not pay attention to the political realm because the system does not address our interests, and then we feel further disenfranchised from the system, leading to further disengagement from the political system.

How can things change?

Over the past several years, we have seen many times that attempts at social media virality, trend-chasing, and pandering do not resonate.

But the shift of public support towards the Conservatives demonstrates that addressing core issues resonates, in this case polling would suggest policies related to affordability, economic management and healthcare. Whether or not it results in a higher voter turnout, focusing on issues that matter to people does influence political beliefs, and resonating with sentiments and emotions makes a difference.

If polling holds and youth voter turnout is higher than expected this election, the results could be more interesting than expected.