Locked In: The Votes That Campaigns Can’t Win Back
Hate waiting in line? Juggling work, kids, life? You’re not alone. As it turns out, more and more Canadians are locking in their votes early, skipping the rest of the political theatre and casting their ballots before the final curtain even rises.
Here’s the punchline: while party leaders are still road-testing slogans and slow-rolling their platforms, voters are already showing up – and sealing the deal. For any campaign counting on a late-game surge? Too late. Those votes are locked in.
Advance voting isn’t some quiet convenience anymore. It’s the new normal – and it’s changing the game.
As we hit the halfway point in the 2025 federal election campaign, the numbers tell the story. According to CBC, more than 130,000 Canadians have already voted – more than double the turnout at this stage in 2021. That was a COVID-era election, but the surge this time is driven by something different. It’s about people taking control – fitting voting into real life, on their terms.
And the trend is bigger than just a few early keeners. Roughly 40% of Canadians now vote in advance of Election Day. That means millions of ballots are cast before final promises are made, scandals erupt, or momentum shifts. For campaigns hoping to peak late? That’s a problem. Those voters are already out of reach and off the table.
It’s a shift that’s forcing parties to rethink how they roll out their campaigns – not just what they say but when they say it.
The old playbook was built around a big final push – saving the flashiest promises and biggest platform reveals for the final stretch. But if nearly half of the electorate has already voted by then? That strategy is a relic that’s no longer relevant.
And here’s the kicker: the three main federal parties (Liberal, Conservative, NDP) still haven’t released their full platforms. And yet, Canadians are already walking into polling stations, casting ballots without a complete picture of who they’re voting for. That’s not just a campaign risk – it’s a reminder that voters are moving faster than the parties trying to win them over. And are making their minds up sooner.
Let’s rewind for a second.
In the 2021 election, 5.8 million Canadians voted early – a 21% jump from 2019. Vote-by-mail exploded too, with over 700,000 special ballots, up from just 55,000 two years earlier. And age played a factor: the older you are, the more likely you are to vote early – and the less likely you are to wait around for political drama to unfold in the dying days of a campaign.
This trend is not slowing down.
According to a new MQO Research poll commissioned by Global Public Affairs, 51% of Canadians say they are likely to vote before Election Day. Trust remains high – 75% say they trust the advance voting process and 76% believe this current election will be fair and legitimate. That’s no small thing in a time when confidence in democratic institutions is under pressure around the world.
This year, advance polls fall over the Easter long weekend – a convenient window for many voters. Many stores are closed, many people have time off from work, families are together and are talking about the election, and both leaders’ debates will be behind us. It’s a rare quiet moment to think, reflect, discuss and then vote.
So whether you’re heading to a school gym, a church basement, or your local Elections Canada office – early or on April 28 – one thing’s clear:
Voters aren’t waiting. And the campaigns? They’d better catch up.