Hannah’s Hot Takes - The Conservatives’ Path to Victory: Striking A Delicate Balance in a Shifting Landscape
Just months ago, Pierre Poilievre was on an easy trajectory to form Canada’s next government, propelled by economic frustration and voter discontent. While the political landscape has now shifted, the fundamentals of his path to victory remain intact – he just needs to adjust strategy.
At its core, a Conservative win hinges on a delicate but achievable balance: maximizing CPC support while ensuring the progressive vote remains divided. Historically, the Liberal voter pool is broader (at times reaching as high as 60 – 70% accessibility) than the CPC’s (typically maxing out around 45% but has reached as high as 55% while Trudeau was at his most unpopular). Meanwhile, the NDP’s voter ceiling sits around 35-40%. For Pierre Poilievre, victory lies in keeping the progressive vote split between the Liberals and NDP.
Here is the electoral math: If a CPC candidate secures 39% of the vote in a battleground riding, they need the NDP to hold at least 23% to keep the Liberals at 38%. If the NDP vote collapses, the Liberal candidate could surge ahead, flipping key ridings. This is particularly the case in Ontario’s 905 region, where voter efficiency is a major Liberal advantage.
Former Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s 2011 majority proved that a 34%-33%-33% split between Conservatives, Liberals and the NDP can deliver a Conservative majority victory. That same formula is within reach for Mr. Poilievre – if he executes his strategy effectively. That being said, a weak NDP vote makes this strategy increasingly difficult.
Turning Challenges into Opportunities
The original Poilievre campaign was built around a clear message: “Canada is Broken.” The leader’s focus on economic issues – repealing the carbon tax, tackling inflation and fixing the housing crisis – made him the dominant voice for frustrated voters. That hasn’t changed. But the political environment has.
With Justin Trudeau stepping aside and Mark Carney stepping in, the Liberal Party has new energy. Carney, a well-credentialed economist and former central banker, has sought to neutralize Poilievre’s economic advantage – most notably by repealing the consumer carbon tax.
At the same time, President Donald Trump’s trade war with Canada has turned the 2025 election into a question of global leadership. This may provide Pierre Poilievre an opportunity to demonstrate strength on the world stage. He has sought to distance himself from Trump, stating he will be a “tough negotiator” who puts Canada first.
Even Trump’s recent attempt to dismiss Poilievre – calling him “stupidly, no friend of mine”- could play into the Conservative leader’s hands. Canadians don’t want a Prime Minister who bends to this White House’s will. Positioning himself as the strongest leader to stand up to both Trump and Carney, Poilievre could try to claim the mantle of the true defender of Canadian interests.
A Winning Communications Strategy
To secure a victory, Pierre Poilievre must refine his message.
1. Keep the Focus on Affordability
While Carney’s credentials are strong, Poilievre remains a leader who has consistently championed cost-of-living issues. His message has worked – forcing the Liberals to react. Rather than letting up, he must double down on his core themes: lower taxes, a stronger economy, and real relief for Canadians.
2. Emphasize Leadership on the Global Stage
Trump’s trade war has raised the stakes, making this election as much about foreign policy as domestic issues. Poilievre has shifted toward a “Canada First” message, but he needs to own it.
3. Win Key Ridings by Maximizing Vote Splits
The blueprint for a Conservative majority is to secure 38-40% of the national vote and ensure the Liberals and NDP split the vote on the other side. The electoral math is clear: because of the Liberals’ efficient voter distribution, the CPC generally need a 3-4% lead in the national polls to win a minority government, and even more for a majority.
This numbers game explains why Canada has had only one Conservative majority since the Mulroney era: there are simply more progressive voters than conservatives, making the electoral math a constant challenge.
The path to victory is tough, but not impossible.
A special thanks to my Global colleague Michael Friesen, whose expertise in electoral math has been invaluable.