From the Podium to the Polls: Debating the Debates’ Influence
As we enter the final stretch of the campaign, the race between the two frontrunners is tightening — and fresh polling suggests neither broke ahead in the two recent debates (all polling insights can be found towards the end of this piece). This makes the stakes even higher. With advance polls now open and with just over a week left to sway undecided voters, the question isn’t who “won the night” – it’s who can turn debate night performances into momentum for the final sprint.
It was a federal debate debut for both Liberal leader Mark Carney and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre — with both stepping into a brand-new forum. And while the stage was shared, the strategies were distinctly different.
The first 30 minutes of the English debate were the most fiery — opening with Trump and trade. Carney was the bullseye, and the other leaders took aim, one by one. It was a test and hold. That matters because for many voters, the first half hour is make-or-break. After that, they are tuning out or flipping to another channel. If you want to land your punches or prove you can take them, the first 30 minutes is your window.
A Human Moment – Post-debate, a flicker of political civility: Carney walked straight over to Poilievre to shake his hand. With a still-hot mic, we heard Poilievre say, “I enjoyed that.” A smile, a thumbs-up — a rare, unscripted moment of humanity between two rivals who just survived the gauntlet – and both know there is still a fight ahead.
Mark Carney: Calm, Calculated — and Counting
For Carney, the mission was simple: don’t fumble the lead. As the frontrunner in the polls, his job was to absorb hits without showing cracks. And he did that. No gaffes, no major missteps, and sometimes just holding your ground is the win.
His strategy? Steady as she goes. Less flash, more fiscal. Carney stayed true to type – the serious central banker-turned-statesman, leaning hard into his technocratic calm. He often paused before answering with, “If I may…” before laying out his thoughts — point by point by point, like an economic briefing. And let’s be honest: no one loves numbering his points more than Mark Carney.
He didn’t spend much time locking eyes with the camera or his fellow leaders, but that professorial tone was the brand he was trying to sell. Calm under pressure, above the fray, and ready for the top job.
Strongest moment – Carney reaffirming that Justin Trudeau is gone as is the carbon tax:
Pierre Poilievre: Reframed, Refined — and testing Prime Ministerial Waters
Poilievre entered the debate with a clear mission: to reposition himself from a partisan warrior to a leader with gravitas. And it showed. His performance was sharp, disciplined, and more statesmanlike than we have normally seen.
He leaned hard on a simple, repeatable line — “the lost Liberal decade” — and while it wasn’t exactly subtle, it was effective. He found solid ground in the crime section of the debate and ensured his platform policies got some airtime too.
But his real breakthrough came not in a zinger, but in his closing remarks – a rare moment of vulnerability. Speaking directly to the camera, Poilievre got personal — even emotional — recounting the trust Canadians have placed in him on the campaign trail. Where has that version of Poilievre been all campaign?
For voters tuning in for the first time, this may have been the night they could picture him behind the Prime Minister’s desk.
Strongest moment – reflecting on his time on the campaign trail: He stopped performing and started connecting:
Jagmeet Singh: Fighting for Airtime, Fighting for Relevance
For NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, the goal was clear: hold onto key seats and stay relevant in a campaign increasingly dominated by the two other frontrunners. His pitch was consistent — send New Democrats to Ottawa to keep power in check — but he had to fight for attention, often jumping in and speaking over others to get heard.
It was a tough night, but Singh knew the stakes.
Strongest moment – When he turned Poilievre’s own attack back on him, asking pointedly: “Do you even know the answer to your own question? It cut through the noise – and stood out:
Yves-François Blanchet: Holding Ground in Quebec
Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet reminded voters he’s not running to be Prime Minister. But with 78 seats in Quebec on the line, he needed a solid performance — and he largely delivered. His goal was to hold what he has. In the English-language debate, his role was more limited but strategic.
Polling Snapshot: Debate Leaves Race Unchanged
Debates rarely decide elections – but they do shape campaigns. They offer raw material – moments to amplify and momentum to seize on. And in this case, both frontrunners showed up with a plan. Carney came in leading and held his line. Poilievre came in close behind — and sharpened his case.
According to a new MQO Research poll commissioned by Global Public Affairs, Canadians are almost evenly split on whether Carney or Poilievre performed best at the debates – 35.8% for Poilievre and 33.5% for Carney.
The partisan lines held firm. Conservative voters stuck behind Poilievre with around 80% of Conservative voters saying he performed best and LPC voters mostly stuck behind Carney with around 70% saying he performed best. 18% said that the leaders performed equally well – or weren’t sure.
Notably, NDP voters are not standing by Singh. Only around 55% of NDP voters saying he performed best and 30% of NDP voters picking Carney as the top performer.
Blanchet is in a similar boat – with fewer than half, around 45%, of Bloc voters choosing him as the best performer and around 25% of Bloc voters choosing Carney as best, 13% of Bloc voters choosing Singh, and another 13% saying they didn’t know.
Momentum can shift in a moment. What the parties do next will decide whether this debate was a turning point — or just a pit stop on the road to Election Day.