Hannah’s Hot Takes - Foreign Pressure, Domestic Stakes
Donald Trump may not be on the ballot – but he’s very much in the race.
April 2nd dubbed “Liberation Day” in Trump’s America, came with sweeping tariffs on foreign imports. In Canada, it was a stark reminder that global volatility doesn’t wait for election calendars. Party leaders weren’t just campaigning – they were facing a real-time stress test of leadership under international pressure.
While no new tariffs were imposed on Canada, the moment continues to highlight two different playbooks from the front runners. Carney is leveraging his access to the White House positioning himself as Canada’s economic shield. Poilievre is taking a different approach; unapologetically focused on domestic pain points, trying not to let the Trump issue pull complete pull focus from the cost-of-living crisis at home.
Carney: Trial by Tariff
For the first time in recent history, a sitting Prime Minister has twice stepped off the campaign trail to return to govern mid-election. With someone as unpredictable as Donald Trump, it is high risk – high reward. But so far, it’s paying off for Mark Carney.
His first call with Trump last week was surprisingly drama free. “Cordial” and “positive” even. No twitter tantrums. Trump even dropped the “Governor” title. Instead, the two men set the stage for post-election talks, and Carney made his position clear: “I will reject all attempts to weaken Canada, to wear us down, to break us so that America can own us.”
When Trump’s auto tariffs landed last week, Carney hit pause on the campaign and flew back to Ottawa, rallying premiers and his Cabinet. Again, on “Liberation Day” he left the campaign to chair a cabinet committee meeting and respond to Trump once again. The message? He’s not running for Prime Minister – he’s acting like one already.
Voters appear to be responding – a new MQO Research poll commissioned by Global Public Affairs shows that 44% of Canadians trust Carney most to handle tariffs – compared to 30% for Poilievre. It’s no surprise, then, that Carney’s campaign continues to keep its focus on Trump.
Poilievre: Betting on the Basics
Pierre Poilievre is sticking to what brought him to this race: frustration, real talk, and a relentless focus on the pain Canadians feel in wallets.
While Carney was dialing Washington, Poilievre was calling out the Trudeau years, hammering housing prices, taxes, and affordability. His campaign believes voters are angry and he’s the megaphone for that.
A few polls still have Poilievre ahead on affordability, though even that gap is tightening. Some Conservatives grumbled he was missing the moment. Trump was sucking all the oxygen and Poilievre was not lighting a match. Poilievre disagreed. “My purpose in politics is to restore Canada’s promise,” he said. “So we will continue, despite calls to the contrary, to talk about those things even if I am the only leader in the country that offers any change.”
Still, something shifted on April 2nd. Trump started creeping more and more into Poilievre’s stump speech. He’s threading the White House threat into his economic message – framing himself as the one who’ll stand tall without losing focus.
He also changed the front of his podium taking away the slogans and adding a Canadian maple leaf and his tone is calmer. It is a strategic effort to create a more prime ministerial look.
Singh: Fighting for Space
Then there’s NDP leader Jagmeet Singh doing everything he can to stay in this debate. In Winnipeg, he stood alongside the Laborers’ International Union of North America, holding a press conference on tariffs before joining workers on the picket line. His polling is in trouble, and the conversation has become, one defined by Carney and Poilievre.
“Who do you want in Ottawa fighting to make sure that people are not on that negotiating table… The things that make us who we are, are not on that table?” Singh said, “You need to elect a New Democrat to do that.”
One Election. One Agenda. And It’s Not ours.
Canada may have dodged Trump’s latest trade blow, but the political fallout is far from over. That first Carney-Trump call didn’t just change the tone, it marked a turning point. Carney’s swift return to Ottawa wasn’t just a political move, it was a power play. He’s casting himself as the adult in the room when things get real.
Meanwhile, Poilievre stuck to his plan, taking the stage in Kingston, Ontario – a city steeped in political history. Using Trump as a tool to hammer home his key themes: domestic dysfunction and affordability angst.
Two leaders. Two strategies. One election. And one American president, still shaping Canada’s political conversation from the other side of the border.