Hannah’s Hot Takes - Campaign First Impressions
Where It All Began
In politics, first impressions aren’t just important – they’re intentional. A campaign launch is never just a checkmark on the operations and logistics team’s itinerary. It’s theatre. It’s signaling priorities. It’s strategy. The opening moves for each party leader say a lot about their game plan and set the table for the campaign to come.
Carney’s Soft Launch with Sharp Intent
Liberal leader Mark Carney wasted no time after his meeting with Governor General Mary Simon. Almost immediately he was wheels up to St. John’s, rallying supporters before heading on to Gander, Newfoundland. On the surface, it looked like a make-up visit to The Rock – a stop that had been scrubbed during his leadership run because of bad weather. But Gander wasn’t just some nostalgic nod. It was narrative-setting.
By launching in the town that famously opened its arms to stranded and distraught Americans on 9/11, Carney tied his opening message to global cooperation and to the spectre of President Donald Trump. It is no secret that the Liberals see political oxygen in keeping the conversation focused on the situation with our neighbour to the south. The more Canadian voters fixate on Trump, the less time they spend scrutinizing issues like affordability where Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has a firm grasp and strong narrative.
Poilievre Plays for the GTA
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre chose size and symbolism – launching his campaign with back-to-back rallies in North York and Brampton, deep in battleground Greater Toronto Area (GTA) territory. Ontario has long been Liberal territory but the Conservatives smell vulnerability. With a slim 2.3-point gap in the province, Poilievre is making a full-on pitch to disillusioned NDP voters and is aimed at flipping key suburban ridings in the 905.
Poilievre is also tapping into a powerful personal story: that of his wife, Anaida. Born in Venezuela, she immigrated to Canada at age eight. At rally after rally, she’s not just by his side, she’s often front and centre, introducing him with warmth and credibility. She’s the Conservatives’ not-so-secret weapon, helping Poilievre connect with Canada’s immigrant communities, particularly in the GTA but elsewhere too.
More than 3 million newcomers have arrived in Canada since Justin Trudeau became Prime Minister in 2015. This isn’t just a niche demographic. Former Harper cabinet minister Jason Kenny once laid out the blueprint for ethnic outreach in Conservative circles – Pierre Poilievre is refining it for a new era. If he wants to win, the road to victory runs straight through the GTA.
Singh Sweats it Out
In Montreal, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh rolled up his sleeves – literally. While the other leaders hit the podium, Singh hit an outdoor gym, flipping tires and boxing for the cameras. On a day where everyone wanted to project strength, Singh chose the literal route.
But the NDP isn’t flexing, it is fighting for survival. The Orange Wave of 2011 now feels like a distant memory. Quebec, once the heart of that movement under Jack Layton, has cooled considerably to the NDP. The party’s national support sits around 11.4%, but in Quebec? Just 6.8%. Singh is clinging to the party’s last remaining seat in the province. Some projections suggest the NDP could finish with as few as six seats. If Singh’s going down, he’s going down swinging.
Blanchet’s Bloc Bet
Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet also launched in Montreal before moving to Québec City – two urban centres that have historically resisted Bloc advances. The party flatlined at 32 seats across two elections, and if Blanchet wants to grow, he needs to crack the urban areas.
Day One and his first official stop? In front of the U.S. Consulate in Québec City, hammering at trade tensions. Blanchet is hoping to elbow his way into the Trump conversation too as a voice for Québec interests in that mess. This isn’t just about sovereignty – it’s about staying relevant in a federal narrative increasingly dominated by Trump turbulence and the national response to it.
Green, but not Growing
Then there is the Green Party – the only party to launch with not one but two (co)leaders, and one that may finish without any elected leader. Elizabeth May and Jonathan Pedneault kicked things off together in Montreal before splitting up to campaign in their own respective ridings. May returned to her long-time B.C. constituency of Saanich-Gulf Islands, which is now a three-way toss-up. Pedneault will run in Outremont – a Liberal stronghold currently held by Immigration Minister Rachel Bendayan, who has won it twice before, securing more than 40% of the vote.
The Greens currently hold just two seats and are polling under 4% nationally. They’ve failed to capitalize on the NDP’s slump and may not meet the 2% threshold needed to maintain party status.
Setting the Stage
Campaign launches aren’t just about soundbites and selfies. They set the battlefield. Each leader’s opening act offers a glimpse into their strategy: where they feel strong, where they see weakness, and what kind of campaign they plan to run in the ensuing days and weeks.