Battle for B.C.: Campaign Insights
As political strategists, the Global Public Affairs’ team is well equipped to provide expert insights on the upcoming B.C. provincial election. Read more on our insights on the election below.
With the B.C. election unofficially well underway, many across Canada are looking to B.C. with increasing interest. As the novice BC Conservatives continue to surge in opinion polls, with the latest numbers showing that they are at 39 percent (and the governing BC NDP at 41 percent). The party is also gaining momentum in other areas due to record-breaking fundraising, being able to attract credible candidates, and experienced political operatives from across the country to their team. Notably, this surge in the polls has led to significant floor crossings as four BC United MLAs have left to run under the BC Conservative banner.
With that, Premier Eby’s odds of an easy majority will be increasingly difficult, with the BC NDP focusing more of their messaging on targeting the BC Conservatives. However, this surge in popularity for the BC Conservatives is not without its issues, such as candidates being dropped for spouting conspiracy theories, an internal campaign to replace John Rustad as leader, and the uncertainty of Rustad’s performance for the upcoming debate on October 8.
Who are the key players?
While much has been said of current BC Conservative incumbents Sturko, Doerkson, Banman, Wat, and party leader Rustad; consideration should also be placed on key candidates who are poised to be successful in the upcoming election.
Linda Hepner, former mayor of Surrey is now running for Surrey-Serpentine River and is seen as a heavyweight candidate in the crucial battleground of Surrey, with ten seats up for grabs. Linda is best known for breaking ground on Surrey’s Light Rail Train (LRT) phase 1 and won her 2014 mayoral election by a landslide with 48 percent of the vote, beating Doug McCallum, pointing to her local popularity.
Gavin Dew is the latest ‘star’ candidate to be named for Kelowna-Mission. Dew was most recently a leadership candidate for the BC Liberals (now BC United) and is seen as a major force within the ‘free enterprise coalition.’ Along with some other notable candidates, he is likely to bring a lot of credibility to the BC Conservatives.
Another crucial aspect of running campaigns is staffing and attracting political organizers. Notably, several key BC United staffers have resigned their roles to work with the BC Conservatives instead, including Mark Robertson, Ed Sem, Pierre Poilievre’s leadership campaign communications director Anthony Koch, and several other staffers from Alberta. This increase in staff builds the party’s capacity for fundraising, professional communication, and grassroots mobilization – all important aspects of running a successful campaign.
What does a path to victory look like?
Polling for the 2024 election has shown a steady increase in support for the BC Conservatives due to a gradual and consistent decline for BC United, with BC NDP support remaining steady. While it is very likely that the BC Conservatives will pick up seats in the Northeast and in the Okanagan region, this only provides them with 18 seats. What will then be crucial are the seats in Surrey and the Lower Mainland. Surrey’s ten seats could have three going to the Conservatives, and in the Fraser Valley, they could also gain 11. For example, Abbotsford-Mission was once a BC Liberal stronghold from 2009 to 2020. The same goes for Boundary-Similkameen, Chilliwack North, and Chilliwack-Cultus Lake. Again, in Greater Vancouver the BC Conservatives could also pick up seven BC United incumbent ridings. Further, Vancouver Island is considered a BC NDP stronghold, and the only representation the BC Conservatives could hope for is in Ladysmith-Oceanside, a riding once held by then-BC Liberal MLA Michelle Stillwell, who lost to then BC NDP candidate Adam Walker in 2020. Walker was since removed from the BC NDP caucus over investigations of misconduct.
Altogether, the BC Conservatives have a real chance of gaining up to a total of 40 seats, which is still shy of the 47 needed to form government. A key path to their victory would be in Surrey and Richmond where the “free enterprise coalition” on the centre-right has won in the past and where they have strong candidates in then-BC United incumbent MLA Teresa Wat and former Surrey mayor Linda Hepner.
However, the chance that the BC Conservatives form government is still very slim. One key risk facing the BC Conservatives is an “anti-BC NDP” vote split with BC United votes draining. This has some similarities to the 1991 provincial election, which saw the once formidable Social Credit party fall from 47 seats to 7, with challenger BC Liberals gaining 17 seats (from 0) to form the Official Opposition.
For the BC NDP, there will have to be some serious missteps in their campaign for the BC Conservatives to have a chance at forming government. However, stranger things have happened in BC politics, and given how bizarre this election has been so far, a BC Conservative government is still not out of the question—it’s just unlikely.
The Global Public Affairs’ team can support your advocacy goals in the lead up to the election and ensure that your organization is well-prepared for all outcomes, enabling you to make informed decisions that support your objectives beyond the ballot.
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