After fifteen years of provincial Liberal governments, Ontarians resoundingly voted for change by electing Premier Doug Ford and his Ontario PCs with a sizable majority government – and change is what they have done. The PCs have moved to fight the federal carbon tax, unilaterally shrunk the size of Toronto City Council, made significant spending cuts, and battled the Trudeau government on most issues – many seen as polarizing among Ontario’s electorate. Acting as a polarizing character is nothing new for Doug Ford, and many of Ford’s decisions have been met with great protest. After a number of reversals on policy changes during a troubled first year that also saw Ford’s chief of staff exit under a cloud of controversy, Ford’s approval and popularity polls have dropped to among the lowest in the country.

Trudeau and the Liberals have taken full advantage of this from day one. From an off the cuff jab at Ford’s ‘For the People’ mantra in his first television ad to explicitly calling out Ontario’s health and education records under the Ford government, the Liberal campaign is looking to sow division among voters, and to rally those discontent with Ford. This discontent is only expected to grow in the weeks ahead, with Ford’s government set to manage potential strike actions by education workers.

The Conservatives are fully aware of the ‘Ford Factor’ – as a result, Ford has been largely silent on the campaign trail, and has not been actively campaigning for his federal counterparts like other premiers’ normally would.

Ontario’s suburban ridings are vote-rich, and success in these areas is crucial to winning in the province. Policies that appeal to these residents – regional transit commitments, family-focused tax credits and housing affordability, to name a few – are critical platform elements for any party focused on winning in Ontario. With the Tories running a middle-class-oriented platform focused on helping Canadians get ahead and the Liberals using a “Choose Forward’ mantra, both parties are hoping to catch the attention of voters in these suburban areas.

Building on the suburban angle, the GTA and Eastern Ontario have seen some of the highest increases in house prices in Canada over the last decade. With Ontario still experiencing significant population growth, all parties have pledged different policies to help first-time buyers and to manage housing demand. The Conservatives have promised to bring back 30-year mortgages and review the current mortgage ‘stress test’, while the Liberals pledged to review housing market speculation and to expand the government’s first-time homebuyer program; both have been criticized by their opponents for not doing enough to support the growing market.

The New Democrats currently hold eight seats in the province, and with the drop in support for the party, none of them can be considered safe by any stretch.  If the NDP can get a bounce in support in the final half of the campaign, it would change the landscape in three ways – ensuring their incumbents are re-elected, perhaps making some gains in urban ridings in the province, and the possibility of electing more Conservative MPs, if the vote splits on the left with the Liberals allow Tory candidates to come up the middle in many swing ridings.